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EIA expects record global petroleum consumption in 2024, with lower crude oil prices

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects global consumption of liquid fuels such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, to set new record highs in 2024. According to EIA’s January Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), global liquid fuel consumption will exceed 100 million barrels per day, on average, in 2023 for the first time since 2019, then average more than 102 million barrels per day in 2024.

EIA expects crude oil prices to decrease through 2023 and 2024, even as petroleum consumption increases, largely because growth in crude oil production in the United States and abroad will continue to increase over the next two years.

US oil production is the largest source of production growth in the forecast, but that growth remains uncertain because of relatively low capital investment from oil producers, EIA noted. Despite relatively low investment, EIA expects increases in drilling productivity and associated natural gas takeaway capacity from the Permian region will result in record annual US crude oil production in 2023 and 2024.

EIA also expects oil production in Canada, Brazil, and Norway collectively to grow 12% from 2022 to 2024, and also expects growth from new sources such as Guyana. Areas of uncertainty include Russian oil supply and OPEC production.

EIA forecasts that the European benchmark Brent crude oil price will average less than $80 per barrel in 2024, more than 20% lower than in 2022.

Our forecast for global consumption of petroleum depends on uncertain economic conditions—especially in China. How China’s economy changes following its reopening from pandemic lockdowns could have a significant impact on global consumption of petroleum products.

—EIA Administrator Joe DeCarolis

Other key takeaways from the January 2023 STEO forecast include:

  • US gasoline prices are largely tied to crude oil, and EIA expects significant price decreases at the pump compared with 2022. EIA forecasts US gasoline prices to average around $3.30 per gallon in 2023 and $3.10 per gallon in 2024.

    Lower crude oil prices are one reason we expect lower gasoline prices, but we also expect that reduced refinery margins will contribute to gasoline prices coming down from 2022 highs.

    —Joe DeCarolis

  • EIA forecasts that US refining margins for diesel will fall by 20% in 2023 and by 38% in 2024. It expects retail diesel prices to average about $4.20/gal in 2023, down 16% from 2022. In 2024, it expects prices to continue to fall, and average near $3.70/gal.

  • EIA expects US natural gas prices to decrease, on average, through 2023 and 2024 as domestic production continues to grow. EIA also expects additional growth in US liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports as global demand remains strong and more U.S. LNG export facilities come online.

  • EIA expects the share of US electricity generated from coal to decrease from 20% in 2022 to 18% in 2023 and then to 17% in 2024. The share of renewable energy as a source for electricity generation in the United States continues to increase, reaching 26% of total generation in 2024. About two-thirds of the forecast increase in renewables generation comes from new utility-scale solar photovoltaic capacity, and most of the rest is from new wind projects.


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