Polestar and Rivia have collaborated on a ‘Pathway Report’ which concludes that the automotive industry is set to overshoot the IPCC’s 1.5-degree pathway by at least 75% by 2050. The report, which uses existing, open-source data to model the current trajectory for emissions stemming from the car industry, was carried out by global management consulting firm Kearney.

… the automotive industry has taken steps over the past decade to decarbonize. So far, the primary focus for the industry has rightly been on electrification of the fleet, targeting the significant portion (60 to 65 percent for internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles) of emissions that come from the tailpipe.

The challenge: when modeling a hypothetical well-to-wheel scenario of aggressive battery electric vehicle (BEV) adoption, powered by hypothetical full switch to fossil-free power sources in parallel, there is still a GHG emission overshoot, unless upstream scope 3 (supply chain emissions) are simultaneously tackled.

—Pathway Report

Passenger vehicles currently account for 15% of all greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions globally. The IPCC has stated that all GHG emissions need to be reduced by 43% by 2030. The report makes clear that the automotive industry is far off track, and, will have spent its full CO₂e budget already by 2035 without urgent action.

The report suggests that the car industry still has a chance to get on track. By redirecting resources and focus, the industry can rapidly build the momentum required to remain in line with the Paris Agreement. The Pathway Report focuses on the current decade and outlines immediate, clear actions that car manufacturers can take between now and 2030, including some that can be triggered immediately.

The data presents a pathway based around three key levers. Lever 1 looks at the speed at which fossil fuel-powered cars need to be replaced by electric cars but points out that this alone will not be enough. A lot more work will be required for levers 2 and 3:

• Increasing renewable energy in power grids

• Reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the manufacturing supply chain

Pulling just one or two levers in isolation will be insufficient and only reduce the overshoot. Collective action from automakers is needed on all three levers, in parallel, at a global level, the report says.

• First, the industry must accelerate the transition to electric vehicles by investing in manufacturing capabilities, as well as implementing a firm end date for fossil fuel car sales globally.

• Second, build out renewable energy supply to global grids that enable EVs to reach their full potential through green charging.

• Third, decarbonize the manufacturing supply chains for these vehicles through switching to low carbon materials, and investing in renewable energy solutions for supply chains.

Kearney’s report has also been shared with several of the world’s leading car makers, together with an invitation to a roundtable held at the end of January to discuss areas of collective action. The aim is to find a path towards unprecedented, relevant and collective climate action for the car industry.