In its April Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the US. Energy Information Administration (EIA) increased its forecast for the 2023 Brent crude oil price by 2.5% from its previous forecast. This change came after OPEC and its partner countries (OPEC+) announced crude oil production cuts for 2023. EIA expects the Brent crude oil spot price to average $85 per barrel in 2023, $3 per barrel higher than its March forecast.
Despite OPEC+ announcing it would cut crude oil production by 1.2 million barrels per day through the end of this year, EIA expects 2023 global production of liquid fuels—which includes gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel—to exceed 101 million barrels per day (MMB/d) for the first time.
The OPEC+ production cut is certainly significant, but we expect growing global production—especially in North and South America—to offset those cuts. We expect that world oil production and demand for petroleum products will be relatively balanced this year. The biggest risk to our April forecast is slower-than-expected economic growth, which would limit growth in demand for fuels such as gasoline and jet fuel.—EIA Administrator Joe DeCarolis
EIA expects US gasoline prices to average around $3.50 per gallon this summer, peaking between $3.60/gal and $3.70/gal in June. EIA estimates that US gasoline production will increase more than gasoline consumption in 2023, which would result in higher gasoline inventories, lower prices, and higher exports compared with 2022.