In its April Oil Market Report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that world oil demand will climb by 2 mb/d in 2023 to a record 101.9 million barrels per day. Reflecting the widening disparity between regions, non-OECD countries, buoyed by a resurgent China, will account for 90% of growth.

OECD demand, dragged down by weak industrial activity and warm weather, contracted by 390 kb/d y-o-y in 1Q23, its second consecutive quarter of decline. Jet/kerosene accounts for 57% of 2023 gains.

Extra cuts by OPEC+ will push world oil supply down 400 kb/d by end of 2023. From March-December, gains of 1 mb/d from non-OPEC+ fail to offset a 1.4 mb/d decline from the producer bloc, IEA said. For the year as a whole, global oil production growth slows to 1.2 mb/d versus 4.6 mb/d in 2022. Non-OPEC+, led by the US and Brazil, drives the 2023 expansion, rising 1.9 mb/d. OPEC+ is expected to drop by 760 kb/d.

IEA forecasts global refining throughput to average 82 million barrels per day this year, 0.1 mb/d lower than in last month’s Report due to weaker 1Q23 data. Annual gains will double to 2.1 mb/d from 1Q23 to 2Q23, as runs in the US normalize and with Chinese activity materially higher than a weak 2Q22 baseline. On average, 2023 crude runs will approach pre-COVID levels but remain 0.3 mb/d below 2019 average throughputs.

Russian oil exports in March soared to the highest since April 2020 due to surging product flows that returned to levels last seen before Russia invaded Ukraine. Total oil shipments rose by 0.6 mb/d to 8.1 mb/d, with products climbing 450 kb/d m-o-m to 3.1 mb/d. Estimated oil export revenues rebounded by $1 billion to $12.7 billion but were 43% lower than a year ago.