Adamas Intelligence: market for magnet rare earth oxides to increase five-fold by 2040; undersupply expected
Following a latent demand pop in 2021 that saw the materialization of some pent-up demand from the year prior, Adamas Intelligence data indicates that global consumption of NdFeB magnets increased just 1.9% year-over-year in 2022, suppressed by global economic headwinds and regional pandemic-related challenges.
Now, in its latest annual report on rare earth magnets (“Rare Earth Magnet Outlook to 2040”) Adamas Intelligence forecasts that NdFeB magnets will increase at a CAGR of 7.5% from 2023 through 2040, bolstered by double-digit growth from electric vehicle and wind power sectors, translating to comparable demand growth for the critical rare earths elements (i.e., didymium, dysprosium and terbium) these magnets contain.
Over the same period, Adamas forecasts that global production of didymium, dysprosium and terbium (the so-called magnet rare earths) will collectively increase at a slower CAGR of 5.2% as the supply side of the market increasingly struggles to keep up with rapidly growing demand.
Among the findings of the latest analysis:
- Market for Magnet Rare Earth Oxides to Increase Five-Fold by 2040. With total magnet rare earth oxide consumption forecasted to increase at a CAGR of 5.2% (versus a higher 7.0% for demand) and prices projected to increase at CAGRs of 3.3% to 5.2% over the same period, Adamas Intelligence forecasts that the value of global magnet rare earth oxide consumption will increase five-fold by 2040, from an estimated US $10.8 billion this year to US $56.7 billion by 2040.
- Annual NdFeB Undersupply of 246,000 Tonnes Expected by 2040. With the market constrained by increasingly tight availability of magnet rare earth feedstocks, Adamas forecasts that global undersupply of NdFeB alloy and powder will amount to 60,000 tonnes annually by 2030 and 246,000 tonnes annually by 2040—an amount almost equal to last year’s total global NdFeB alloy and powder production.
- Annual NdPr Oxide Undersupply of 90,000 Tonnes Expected by 2040. Similarly, with the market constrained by a lack of new primary and secondary supply sources from 2023 onward, Adamas forecasts that global undersupply of didymium oxide (or oxide equivalent) will rise to 19,000 tonnes-per-annum by 2030 and 90,000 tonnes-per-annum by 2040—an amount roughly equal to last year’s total global primary plus secondary production.
- Annual Dy and Tb Oxide Undersupply of 1,800 Tonnes and 450 Tonnes Expected by 2040. Similarly, with the constraint of a lack of new primary and secondary supply sources from 2023 onward, Adamas Intelligence forecasts that global undersupply of dysprosium and terbium oxides (or oxide equivalents) will rise to 1,800 tonnes and 450 tonnes annually by 2040—amounts roughly equal to last year’s total global production of each oxide.