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ABI Research projects worldwide commercial EV market to surpass US$680B by 2027

According to global technology intelligence firm ABI Research, the worldwide commercial Electric Vehicle (EV) market is projected to grow from US$30.7 billion in 2020 to more than US$682 billion by 2030. This market valuation refers to the total industry-wide global revenues derived from all commercials EVs sold yearly.

The growing affordability of EVs has been one of the biggest drivers for fleet electrification efforts. There has been a trend of EVs becoming more and more affordable due to advancements in battery technology and economies of scale in production. One of the main factors driving the affordability of EVs, especially EV trucks, is the decreasing cost of battery technology. Lithium-ion battery costs have fallen by over 85% since 2010, and this trend is expected to continue.

—Adhish Luitel, Supply Chain Management & Logistics Senior Analyst at ABI Research

Beyond affordability, factors such as government incentives, lower operational costs, simplified maintenance, and enhanced performance compared to regular internal combustion engine vehicles also have been key drivers of adoption among private sector fleets.

As trucking rentals and third-party logistics companies have started electrifying their fleets, OEMs have also been actively rolling out new EV and ZEV models to accommodate the market demand. OEMs such as Daimler, Volvo, Ford, Navistar, Toyota, Hyundai, Nikola, BYD, Hino, and Isuzu have recently been rolling out new EV and ZEV truck models. Yet, despite the pickup in EV and ZEV production, charging and refueling infrastructure remains a barrier for long-haul trucking.

One of the critical aspects of successful fleet electrification is establishing a robust charging infrastructure to support the charging requirements of fleets. This is especially key in long-haul trucking. Balancing on-premises and public charging is a key consideration when investing in fleet electrification. Although OEMs are trying to address long-haul trucking drivers’ range anxiety with larger battery packs, more efficient electric drivetrains, and using hydrogen fuel cell technology, fleet operators need to strike a balance between on-premises charging and public charging. The optimal approach depends on factors like fleet size, operational requirements, geographic distribution, and available resources.

—Adhish Luitel

These findings are from ABI Research’s Zero-Emission Vehicle Adoption in Fleets: Investments, Use Cases, Reduced Costs, Regulations, and Infrastructure application analysis report.


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