The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects US crude oil production to surpass 12.9 million barrels per day for the first time in late 2023 and to exceed 13 million barrels per day in early 2024. In its August Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), EIA forecasts US crude oil production to average 12.8 million barrels per day in 2023—200,000 barrels per day more than in its July forecast.

EIA expects sustained global demand for petroleum products and Saudi Arabia’s extended voluntary production cuts will contribute to oil prices rising through the year. The Brent crude oil price was near $75 per barrel at the beginning of July and increased throughout the month to surpass $86 per barrel on 4 August. EIA forecasts the Brent crude oil price to increase the rest of 2023 and to approach $90 per barrel in late 2023.

We forecast continued growth in domestic oil production, which is bolstered by higher oil prices and higher well productivity in the near term.

—EIA Administrator Joe DeCarolis

EIA also forecasts global liquid fuels production will increase by 1.4 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2023. Non-OPEC production increases by 2.1 million b/d in 2023, which is partly offset by a drop in OPEC liquid fuels production.

In 2024, global production increases by 1.7 million b/d, with 1.2 million b/d coming from non-OPEC countries. Non-OPEC production growth in the forecast is led by the United States, Brazil, Canada, Guyana, and Norway.

EIA forecasts US regular gasoline prices will average about $3.63 per gallon for the rest of 2023, an increase from its previous forecast of $3.27 per gallon. Higher gasoline prices are largely the result of higher crude oil prices and a series of unplanned US refinery outages so far this summer.

Also in the August STEO, EIA expects that July’s high temperatures and resulting demand for air conditioning led to near-record levels of electricity consumption. EIA estimates about 388 billion kWh of electricity was consumed in the United States during July—about equal to the record for monthly US consumption set in August 2022.