Historically, there has been somewhat of an inverse relationship between vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and gasoline prices, according to the US Department of Energy (DOE). In the past, a rise in gasoline prices was typically followed by a decrease in discretionary travel, leading to a decrease in VMT. This set up a pattern where the gasoline price and VMT trendlines almost mirrored each other. In 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic, there were severe disruptions in VMT that broke that pattern.

Gasoline prices and VMT were both going down at the same time from March 2020 to March 2021 and then both increased thereafter. In early 2022 both gasoline prices and VMT experienced another large decline with the VMT decline preceding the decline in gasoline prices. (See also the “Monthly changes in key transportation indexes” by Michael Sivak.)

The figure above shows the percentage change in gasoline prices and VMT from one year to the next (e.g., January 2022 data were compared with January 2023 data). Prices are for regular gasoline. The gray-shaded area denotes months since the pandemic began.

Data: Federal Highway Administration, Traffic Volume Trends, June 2023 and previous monthly editions. Energy Information Administration, Monthly Energy Review, July 2023, Table 9.4.