S&P Global: US heads into 2024 producing more oil than any country in history
21 December 2023
The United States heads into the New Year producing more oil than any country in history, leading strong non-OPEC+ supply growth that will more than meet growing global demand, according to the latest oil markets outlook by S&P Global Commodity Insights.
US total liquids production for Q4 2023 stands at 21.4 million barrels per day (b/d), of which 13.3 million b/d is crude and condensate with the balance composed of natural gas liquids and biofuels. Both totals are global records. At the same time, both Brazil and Canada are set to produce more than at any time in their histories.
Brazil is tracking for 2023 production of 3.388 million b/d crude and condensate / 4.195 million b/d total liquids; Canada for 4.844 million b/d crude and condensate / 5.674 million b/d total liquids.
All three nations are on track to set new national highs again in 2024.
Not only is the United States producing more oil than any country in history, but the amount of oil (crude oil, refined products and natural gas liquids) that it is exporting is near the total production of Saudi Arabia or Russia. When you look back on 2008—when US production was at a 62-year low, and exports were zero—it is a remarkable turnaround.
—Jim Burkhard, Vice President and Head of Research for Oil Markets, Energy and Mobility, S&P Global Commodity Insights
While global crude oil demand is set to hit a record high in 2024, it will easily be met by the growth in supply.
S&P Global Commodity Insights now expects liquids supply growth outside of OPEC+ to grow 2.7 million b/d in 2024, well above total demand growth of 1.6 million b/d.
The growth in non-OPEC+ production coupled with OPEC+ supply restraint sets the 2024 “playing field” for oil prices between $75-$100 per barrel for Dated Brent, the analysis says.
Oil markets are heading into 2024 with a new equilibrium. OPEC+ supply management keeps prices from falling below a certain floor, at least for any significant amount of time. At the same time, prices remain high enough to support oil production growth outside of OPEC+, which in turn deters prices from surging too high.
—Jim Burkhard
However, the new oil price playing field is, by no means, set in stone and major developments could always alter the boundaries as has happened before. The same basic fundamentals that drove past shifts are still in play today, the analysis notes.
If prices stay high enough to sustain strong supply gains outside of OPEC+, then pressure rises on OPEC+ to cut more. Most of the time action is taken to support prices, but history shows that sometimes supply restraint and lost market share becomes an increasing burden.
—Jim Burkhard
This news is very discouraging for anyone who is hoping that some combination of growth in renewable energy and electrified transportation is on the verge driving global oil production in a downward direction. My view is that the current standards of consumption in the OECD countries are unsustainable and that a serious discussion about reasonable standards of consumption need to take place ASAP. Unfortunately it is almost impossible to have such a discussion in a society which remains committed to the game of turning money in to more money as the only the only reasonable organizing principle for human economic activity.
Posted by: Roger Brown | 21 December 2023 at 07:43 AM
Smaller cars and slower speed on the roads can decrease petrol consumption and pollution. Also nat gas tractor-trailer can also help. what is cemvita waiting for to start producing cheap fuels.
Posted by: Gorr | 21 December 2023 at 02:26 PM
This is but a speed bump only and is reasonably good news. Since society must grow and energy with it, facilitating technology and production toward green ends, it is better that a reasonably stable and mostly-democratic entity control and dominate energy production and distribution - i.e. definitely not OPEC or its less stable peripheral members as they have little care for developing toward a non-fossil fuel and shared-wealth world. As money flows to dynamic energy entities, though still fossil, options become available for profit-maximizing that can be anything - H2, solar, geo, etc., etc. They just need to be shown to be scalable, profitable, and easily integrated into current distribution. Disparage not the capitalists and free-marketers, for those are the only ones that can actually mobilize new energy and new ways of industrializing this world - for to rely on the green activists and such anarchists are to embrace poverty, chaos, and energy/ society mis-management.
Posted by: Jer | 21 December 2023 at 08:13 PM
Fracked oil fields do not last as long as conventional it's a bubble that will not last forever.
Posted by: SJC | 22 December 2023 at 05:08 AM
Of course the current oil production increase is only a bubble. The question is how big a bubble is it and how much more damage will it do to global ecosystems and global food production systems before it is over? Certainly we need reasonably priced fossil fuels during the transition to a zero carbon economy. But clearly it is better to achieve reasonable costs by lowering demand rather than by raising production. How is the continued production and use of ATVs, snow mobiles, recreational power boats, giant SUVs, jet airplane tourism, etc. helping us to move to a sustainable infrastructure? You can invoke free market/social dualities until cows come home, but if your frame of discussion does not allow a consideration of standards of consumption then your thought process is broken.
Posted by: Roger Brown | 23 December 2023 at 09:11 AM
You are preaching to the choir here we all want sustainable mobility it's how we obtain that that matters that's the only reason for any comment here whatsoever.
Posted by: SJC | 23 December 2023 at 09:20 AM