CNCDA report shows dip in Tesla registrations in California; drop in BEV market share; hybrids up
04 May 2024
The California New Car Dealers Association (CNCDA) released its California Auto Outlook covering the first quarter of 2024. The report summarizes quarterly new vehicle registration figures statewide and predicts overall 2024 sales. Experian Automotive provides data for CNCDA’s Auto Outlook.
Tesla registrations were down again in the state YTD, with a 7.8% dip (4Q 2023 posted a 9.8% decline) amongst all brand registrations. Toyota showed significant gains among the top three California shareholder brands, increasing to 16.6%, as did Honda, capturing 10.5% of the market, while Tesla’s numbers faltered (11.6%).
As Tesla’s dominance wanes, traditional manufacturers are stepping up, offering new plug-in hybrid (PHEV), hybrid, and battery electric vehicle (BEV) models. This shift is evident in the sales of BEVs by traditional franchised dealerships, which surged by 14% (while direct sellers saw a three-point drop) compared to last year’s figures.
Notably, franchised dealers account for more than 66% of combined sales for all alternative powertrain types, demonstrating consumer confidence in local dealerships and mainstay brands despite changing market dynamics, the CNCDA said.
The Q1 2024 report shows a slight increase in overall registrations at 0.7% (the sixth consecutive quarterly increase) in the state, with 431,638 new sales. This figure is in contrast with 9.6% improvement in the US as a whole. Weaker results in California are partially attributed to relatively strong sales in the first quarter of 2023.
California’s pace of improvement is expected to ease overall in 2024 compared to last year. While registrations are predicted to exceed 1.8 million units, the increase will likely remain in the single digits, the CNCDA said.
Toyota once again secured its lead as the top brand in California, with a 9.3% increase in registrations, as did Honda, with an impressive 18.6% jump YTD. The top three passenger cars sold were the Toyota Camry, the Honda Civic, and dropping from first place to third, the Tesla Model 3. The top three light trucks were the Tesla Model Y, the Toyota RAV4, and the Honda CR-V.
Another brand of note this year is Dodge. Due to the recent introduction of the Hornet PHEV SUV, Dodge reported the second-highest positive change in California, with a 76.2% increase in new registrations last quarter.
Vehicle powertrains. The report’s vehicle powertrain dashboard details the ctate’s BEV, hybrid, and PHEV sales and market health. The State’s BEV market share declined for the second quarter, falling to 20.9% from 21.5 percent at the end of 2023. Alternatively, the %tate’s hybrid registrations jumped again this quarter to 13% (up from 11.1%). California’s PHEV market share slightly increased, wrapping the first quarter at 3.6%.
Source: CNCDA
Combined sales of BEVs, PHEVs, hybrids, and fuel cell vehicles in California accounted for 37.5% of the market share last quarter (up from just 11.6% in 2018). Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles (gas and diesel) accounted for 62.5% of registrations, dipping about 1.4 points from the end of 2023.
California continues to lead in BEV registrations, posting 32.5% of sales nationwide. The US market share of BEV vehicles is far less substantial, posting 7.4% in Q1 2024.
Hybrid and Electric Vehicles. Tesla may have the top three-selling electric vehicles in the State, however, first-quarter sales show a significant 6.4% YTD BEV market share loss. Mercedes and BMW showed the highest increases in BEV sales in the State last quarter, posting 3% and 2.4%, respectively.
Northern Californians continue to be the most significant adopters of BEVs, capturing 24.8% of the market share. Southern California BEV sales remained fairly level at 21.5% of sales last quarter.
Model Segment Rankings. California’s best sellers in the primary segments in Q1 2024 include the Honda Civic, Toyota Camry, Tesla Model 3, Toyota Tacoma, Chevrolet Silverado, Toyota RAV4, Subaru Outback, and Lexus RX.
Brand market share and summary. Registrations for five brands in the state have improved by more than 22% so far this year. Brands showing the most significant positive percent increases were Rivian (87.1%), Dodge (76.2%), Lexus (37.3%), Lincoln (25.8%), and Volvo (22%).
California’s brand registration numbers do not mirror those of the rest of the US, which reports Toyota at 13.4% of the market share, Ford at 12.4%, and Chevy at 10.4% last quarter.
Regional variances. Car retail registrations in N. and S. California showed declines of 11.8% and 6%, respectively. Light truck retail registrations were up by 2.9% in N. California and 5.3% in S. California. San Diego County’s share increased by 4.6% with 35,561 registrations this year.
I believe that this is fundamentally society-healthy, economy-positive, and well-founded news/ trends. PHEVs are the major milestone toward whatever final personal consumer vehicle propulsion system 'should be' for the remainder of this century.
In my perfect 2020 to 2050 world, the US is substantially electrified such that each and every vehicle: EVbike/scooter to heavy specialty truck/purpose vehicle gets 30 to 50% minimum of its lifetime mileage from electrified on-board storage, but that the remainder has diverse and robust options. Further to my perfect world, no gas station closes due to lack of business, alternative combustible (carbon and not, such as H2) fuels are available throughout, and the model types covered range across all personal, recreational, commercial, and industrial purposes. I hope that pure BEV companies such as Tesla continue to exist, as it is likely, due to them, that we are in this 'beneficial' and fairly advanced situation, decades before we ever had any right to be.
The issue of course: is if the current breed of EVs and PHEVs can provide the equivalent lifetime cost and performance expectations that the public has expected (especially in the US due to the larger vehicle sizes, greater mileage, and road-trip culture) and therefore continues to be a major source of employment, lifestyle choice, and economic activity - i.e: 1 - 2+ cars per family, 10+ years per owner over 15 - 20 years life, and 20000 mi/yr per vehicle.
I look forward to the major manufacturers providing ICE-equivalent (in every cost, variety, and performance sense) PHEV options to the end of this decade --in conjunction-- with upgraded power availability and distribution; central, local, and on-site; throughout such that 'EV charging' times are unstructured, unlimited, and without distress on any part of the system, likely after this decade.
It's now up to the consumers to embrace this PHEV culture -and- for local and state governments to stop actively preventing it.
Posted by: Jer | 04 May 2024 at 06:37 AM
The key thing is to reduce the amount of CO2 put into the atmosphere, and it doesn't matter how you do this. So it is better to build N million BEVs, or 2N PHEVs or 4N HEVs ?
It depends on the usage expected on a per-user basis.
If you do mainly short runs, a BEV will work.
If you do occasional long runs, a PHEV will work, and a BEV if there is good charging infrastructure.
If you do lots of long runs, you might want a diesel.
Alternately, you could have a BEV and access to an ICE/HEV swapping service.
The problem is that people are not putting HUGE batteries (> 100 kWh) in them which is a bit crazy as you have to lug an extra 600 kg around with you all the time.
Or make roads that can charge safely on the go, or use a catenary approach for trucks on special roads.
Posted by: mahonj | 05 May 2024 at 12:08 PM
More than 20 years after the Prius I would have thought hybrids would be 50% of sales by now.
Posted by: SJC | 05 May 2024 at 12:25 PM