USGS scientists have developed a new scientific mechanism for assessing the potential risk to worldwide mineral commodity supplies from seismic activity. The methodology was developed through studying copper and rhenium but provides a framework for future studies assessing many other mineral commodities around the globe.

Earthquakes have the potential to affect mining operations substantially, leading to supply chain disruptions that adversely affect the global economy. This new study quantifies that risk to copper and rhenium supply by examining the impact of earthquakes on mining, smelting, and refining operations across the globe.

Many of the largest copper mines and processing facilities are concentrated in the highly seismic regions of South America, East Asia, and the Pacific with the resultant potential for cascading effects on the entire copper supply chain. Rhenium is a byproduct produced at some copper mines and therefore has similar risk.

The potential impacts of earthquake hazards on global mineral commodity supplies have previously not been systemically quantified.

—Dr. Nedal Nassar, USGS Chief of Minerals Intelligence Research

World map showing disruption of copper refinery production from seismic activity.

Results of this study could be incorporated into economic models that would provide insights into the impacts of supply disruptions. Such analyses could be useful to national governments, mining companies, development organizations and insurance companies in making key management and business decisions.

Resources

• Quantitative Risk of Earthquake Disruption to Global Copper and Rhenium Supply