I await the posts saying ' But what does the near universal opinion of the trucking industry matter?'

Magic batteries will solve everything, including alopecia!

In case you missed the near universal opinion of the trucking industry…,

https://advanced.edu/blog/whats-next-for-trucking/#:~:text=Trucking%20companies%20are%20learning%20to,upgrading%2C%20the%20future%20looks%20exciting.

Trucking companies are learning to be ready for anything by making their plans more flexible and smart.
In short, the future of trucking is all about using new tech and being kinder to the planet. While there are still some bumps in the road, like rules and roads that need upgrading, the future looks exciting

https://www.tenstreet.com/blog/about-tenstreet/the-future-of-trucking-top-trends-you-need-to-know

What Does the Future of Trucking Look Like?
Emerging technologies are driving the transportation industry forward and defining what the future of trucking will look like. Let’s look at what people can expect from trucking in the long term.
Electric Trucks
Future semi-trucks are expected to be all-electric. The gas-guzzling behemoths everyone is used to will become a thing of the past as environmental concerns take hold.
The trucking industry is responsible for a huge proportion of the carbon emissions caused by transport across the world. As electric vehicles become the norm, the truck of the future will be running on electricity, not gas.

[Note: In this context gas refers to liquid petrochemical fuels and not H2 or NG]

https://www.lytx.com/blog/the-future-of-the-trucking-industry-explained

Top trends emerging in the trucking industry
Electric vehicles
Electric passenger vehicles have been around for some time, and according to statistics from Automotive World, 2019 sales reached over 2.2 million units. For fleets in this space, the use of electric vehicles is likely to boom in the near future. Semi trucks for long haul journeys are not as easy to transition, however, so the development of electric trucking models will progress at a slower pace. 
The future of trucking may well involve electric vehicles, but long-haul trucking requires extensive battery capacity that cannot be met by current electric solutions. That said, some fleets that operate in urban or regional areas are beginning to look into electric models and manufacturers like Volvo, BYD, Daimler, and Paccar. These manufacturers have all been quick to develop trucks to meet the demand. 

———————————-
…and so on ad nauseam. It’s by pretty clear the industry isn’t set on any one approach which is great news for H2 fans because there is still a chance.

H2 FCs best chance at finding a transportation niche is in China but even there there is competition. Last year China added about 1k commercial H2 trucks while they added 15k battery trucks with swappable batteries.

From my perspective the “nearly universal” opinion that you refer to is actually your personal opinion. I would posit that a meager 16k HDTs in China (1 million+ HDTs sold annually) is a clear indication that little has been settled in that market.

Apparently McKinsey and I are not in agreement with the nearly universal opinion. I am largely in agreement with McKinsey however I believe that battery technology and economics are adequate today to supplant diesel if combined with a well designed and standardized swapping system. That is the magic.

I also believe hydrogen has a largely ignored opportunity as a range extender though the majority of FC HDT prototypes I’ve seen include large batteries (40-140 miles of AER) and a plug.

https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/chinas-heavy-duty-truck-industry-the-road-ahead

Powertrain technologies in heavy-duty trucks

Technologies and infrastructure associated with battery-electric-vehicle (BEV) products are the most mature and may be the most widely adopted in the short term. Because currently available battery technology doesn’t have sufficient performance to provide the range or charging speed required for long-haul transport, applications of BEV technology would mostly be in short-haul and local transportation.
Hybrid heavy-duty trucks (HDTs) could meet the needs of medium-distance transportation as a transitional solution before new battery technology is ready for the market. However, the technology is not yet economically or environmentally viable for long-haul trucking.
Battery swaps show promise for long-haul trucking. The rapid development of battery swap options may stimulate the development of battery electric HDTs, especially since swapping time has been reduced to a mere two minutes. Two companies announced the launch of a battery swap HDT line in 2022, and another has sold 1,000 battery swap HDTs—a small but symbolically significant number—for use in mines.
Fuel cells may be another option. However, the technology is not yet mature, lacks supportive infrastructure, and has yet to hit upon a workable business model. We believe fuel cell HDTs are unlikely to reach widespread adoption before 2030.

Thank you, Davemart, for your contribution to this thread.
@Gasbag,
Hold your cheer leading for BEV trucks until you assess the environmental nightmares of disposing zillion tons of batteries, or even if recycling will be done on them, there will still be huge potential for toxic wastes to be released into the environment. Li battery recycling is neither easy nor efficient energy-wise, and the same for battery manufacturing, with a lot of very toxic substances including PFAS are know to be at very high level near battery manufacturing plants.

By contrast, the stainless steel LH2 tanks in those FC trucks can be used almost forever, and can be easily recycled at the end of their useful lifespan, and they cost very little to manufacture. Truly a big environmental contrast between BEV trucks and FC trucks.

@Gasbag

To be more precise, since you say that I am wrong in claiming that hydrogen trucks for long distance are not the near universal solution by the trucking industry, and I have provided substantial lists of those who are, please provide a list of those who are not.

I will save you the bother.

Tesla.

And that is about it.

Googling how many trucks Tesla have on the road turns up something like 100.

Daimler, Kenworth and so on I have listed as looking to hydrogen as well as batteries have rather more.

@Davemart,

I think we are in agreement that our opinions and views aren’t what matters. I’d go on to say that what you refer to as the near universal industry opinion also doesn’t matter. What does matter is what industry buyers are willing and able to invest in. 100 Tesla trucks which are government subsidized amounts to little more than a proof of concept trial. The same can be said of hydrogen single digit deployments of FCTs. I believe this supports my contention that the industry has not settled on a solution for long heavy.

China has had over a million battery electric busses and commercial vehicles for awhile so for short light they seem to have settled on a solution. China is reporting significant success with battery swapping for short heavy. I would expect that this will expand to population and production centers over the next few years. Once that is in place it is a short hop to expanding to long heavy if an alternative has not taken hold.

@Davemart,

You’ve provided an extensive list of manufacturers that have produced announcements about FC products.
Apparently that is proof enough for you. When do you anticipate those product announcements will translate into actual products and sales?

I accept that you accept that the industry has nearly universal solution for long heavy and it is Hydrogen. I’m not trying to convince you otherwise.

For me those announcements and plans/hopes will be accepted as reality when they translate into product deployments.
Can you provide any announcements about annual sales totals? I regard FCT product announcements that aren’t backed up by sales as meaningless as BET product announcements that aren’t backed up by sales.

I have provided extensive examples of the the prevailing market opinions. I contend that those support my view. I accept that you reject that.

My claim is that long heavy NEV transport is an evolving nascent market. JAs such there is scant detailed information readily available on actual deployments.Can you be so kind as to provide what sources you rely on for sales totals for this market or cite sales totals? I’m open to being convinced of your view and sales totals would be the best way to convince me of that.

>You are entitled to your own opinion.
>You are not entitled to your own facts.

That’s a clever line though not original and from my perspective not really apropos here. Kindly Let me know what specific facts I’ve asserted that you doubt and I’ll try to document them for you as time permits.

@peskanov

Fast recharging should work fine on the truck, any issues are more to do with supplying one heck of a lot of power for the local grid.

A liquid hydrogen truck can basically do the same distances as a diesel without needing to refuel.

I am a fan of trying different solutions and seeing how they pan out, not of trying to work out what 'should' work and excluding other solutions.

Personally my guess is that at some point through the road on the move charging is likely to come into play.

@Davemart,
my point is: if fast charging (at the 20 min mark) works, then both systems are pretty much equivalents in terms of use.
Yes, H2 truck will have to stop less often and refuelling time will be a bit better, but that's not a show stopper for BEVs, the difference is not that big. In that case TCO would win.

Not all truck companies are aiming at 20 min recharge, of course; many specs I have seen include 1 hour for fast charging.
It's interesting to see that China is moving in a different direction, using battery swapping batteries in trucks; that system requires lot's of extra batteries in the system, but cuts some cost on charging infrastructure.