Rho Motion: European July EV sales fall year-on-year; China up with PHEVs leading
13 August 2024
Rho Motion reported that 1.4 million EVs were sold globally in July, bringing the year-to-date sales figure up to 8.4 million. Regional disparities continue to grow as EU & EFTA & UK sales fall year on year by 8% compared to July 2023 and China’s market grew by 31%.
Globally, the market continues to show strong growth, up 21% compared to the same period (Jan-Jul) in 2023. Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) represent 65% and Plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) represent 35% of sales in 2024 so far.
The market share of PHEVs has grown by 5 percentage points compared to the same period in 2023 where PHEVs represented almost a third of total EV sales.
The EV market has definitely been a mixed bag so far this year. Globally sales have been strong and are continuing to flourish in China, N. America and fledgeling EV markets. However, EU’s sales are stalling, especially in Germany and EU tariffs on Chinese EVs are likely to impact this even further. Despite the region’s woes, France and the UK are weathering the storm and have grown their domestic markets. We would expect to see these trends play out over the rest of the year unless drastic measures are put into place.
—Charles Lester, Lead EV Data Analyst at Rho Motion
Snapshot electric vehicle sales in January - July 2024 vs January - July 2023:
Global: 8.4 million in Jan-Jul 2024, +21% y-o-y
China: 5.0 million, +31%
EU & EFTA & UK: 1.7 million, 0%
USA & Canada: 1.0 million, +10%
Rest of World: 0.7 million, +31%
Snapshot EV sales July 2023 v July 2024:
Global: +21%
China: +31%
EU & EFTA & UK: -8%
USA & Canada: +7%
Rest of World: +41%
Despite weaker sales in the EU & EFTA & UK in July 2024, falling by 28% compared to June 2024, the Year-To-Date (YTD) figure is flat with no growth in EV sales figures compared to 2023. A key driver to the reduction in EV sales in Europe this year is weaker Germany EV sales following the end of the subsidy last year. However, EV sales have grown in the UK and France so far this year with France’s market growing by 6%.
In the US & Canada, EV sales have grown by 10% YTD January – July 2024 compared to the same period in 2023. General Motor’s production of the Blazer EV and Equinox continues to ramp up, with more than 10,000 units produced combined in July 2024; more than 5,000 units of the Honda Prologue EV were also produced.
In China, EV sales have grown by 31% so far this year. However, most of this increase has come from growth in PHEV sales. PHEVs have grown by 70% YTD and BEVs by 12%. There were record-high PHEV sales in July 2024 in China, with 0.4 million units. This growth is due to both a rising number of models available from manufacturers including Range Extender EVs (REEVs) as well as companies like BYD continuing to increase PHEV production and sales.
In spite of the rather dramatic headline, Germany is the only significant market that is down this year, and the reason is obvious (end of incentives). Italy was down in last month's numbers, but that's because they had incentives starting, so sales were deferred. They aren't mentioned here, but they would be if they were still down.
Posted by: Bernard | 13 August 2024 at 07:25 AM
Most of these numbers are the result of global laws everywhere concerning what kind of cars manufacturers should produce and sell to comply. The opinion and taste of the average car buyers in free market especially is not taken into account. Every friends i talk with about say the same thing : It's the goverment that decide and even friends omited to talk if they have a place to recharge their future ev. Im my opinion evs buyers up to now bought only because it's a new gadjet.
Posted by: Gorr | 13 August 2024 at 06:59 PM
Gorr,
That may have been the case with very early adopters (along with environmental concerns, of course), but these days electric cars are cheaper to own for people who buy new. That's the case even without incentives, and without accounting for externalities such as pollution, health care, environmental cleanups, or money sent abroad to pay for oil.
The economics are getting there for used cars as well. You just need to avoid some notoriously unreliable early EVs such as the Leaf, Smart, etc. An e-Golf, Ionic, i3, or even a Tesla aren't more expensive than comparable gasoline models, and they've proven to be long-lasting machines.
Posted by: Bernard | 14 August 2024 at 06:55 AM
BEV is stagnating because the targets are unrealistic. The battery electric drive is a transitional technology on the way to renewable energy sources such as hydrogen, eFuels and others. But PHEV is the better alternative as a transitional technology for many reasons. This is also reflected in the figures. The PHEV, which has already been declared dead by many, will become a bestseller even without government subsidies because it is the “Swiss army knife” among cars for people with only one car per household and in rural regions.
Posted by: Hoaloer | 14 August 2024 at 08:00 AM
Hoaloer, please read the article above. EV sales are not stalling yet, they are growing strongly in almost every major market. The only exception is Germany where sales were anticipated next year due to the end of subsidies. They will probably grow again next year, especially with more affordable models from the big German brands and Stellantis.
Posted by: Bernard | 14 August 2024 at 08:09 AM
@Bernard: But exponential growth looks different. The car manufacturers are global companies and all of them have calculated with roughly double the demand that we currently have (globally!). I think PHEV technology is the better alternative for many reasons.
Incidentally, BEVs have no ecological advantage over PHEVs. This can be read in the VDI study (currently only available in German): https://technikaufsohr.podigee.io/168-vdi-oekobilanz-studie
So why build exclusively on BEVs when there is a technology that is suitable “for all applications” and that irons out the disadvantages of the BEV?
Posted by: Hoaloer | 14 August 2024 at 10:28 AM
I don't think that anybody seriously expected exponential growth, which is only sustainable for a few short years anyway. Some manufacturers surely expected more EV growth than they are seeing, but that's because they aren't making a very good product. That is slowly getting fixed as we see second and third generation EVs. The VW group is a great example of this in Europe: their first attempts weren't very good and did not sell well. Their new models, just coming-out now, are excellent, with class-leading range, efficiency, charging, and pricing.
Unfortunately they only send their worst cars to North America...
There's a place for plug-in hybrids, but it's a compromise solution. The cost advantage has disappeared, and complexity is doubled (these two things are related, of course). They also have a significant hidden cost for consumers: they have very poor space utilization, so you need to buy a bigger car. I think that they will continue to play a small/diminishing role, especially in developing markets.
Things are changing on the environmental front as well. New batteries use fewer troublesome materials, and those materials are now sourced from countries that have much better oversight. Also, battery materials are finally getting recycled, so we will soon see a nearly circular economy for these, just like the steel in every car eventually gets melted-down and re-used.
Posted by: Bernard | 14 August 2024 at 11:50 AM
You may have missed how all the major mass manufacturer OEMs have changed their strategies in the last 8 months. All of them are now increasingly focusing on combined technology again and are pursuing a mixed strategy. This is also sensible because no technology can be implemented in such a short time with such a rapid speed to a targeted 100% penetration.
The Toyota CEO now assumes that the share of BEVs will level off at around 30% in the long term. That would mean that around 70% would be some other solution.
Which OEM can afford not to cultivate 70% of the market?
The BEV is the right choice in many life situations and applications, but for many there are better options.
Posted by: Hoaloer | 15 August 2024 at 09:58 AM
PHEV and hybrid are taking away market share from gasoline and diesel-only cars, but BEVs are taking away market share from all fossil cars, including hybrids.
It's likely that fossil cars will survive for a long time, but they will become more and more specialized and archaic. Very few consumers want to go back to fossil, at €100 per tank or more, for everyday driving. It's becoming economically nonviable; fuel prices are only trending in one direction.
I fully agree with you that some manufacturers have had to re-think their strategy. Their first batch of EVs were un-competitive and found few buyers. They thought that they could release any product and have guaranteed sales, which isn't the type of logic that CEOs should get paid for. Nevertheless, they will live and learn, and grant themselves huge bonuses!
Posted by: Bernard | 15 August 2024 at 11:21 AM
Agree with Gorr. Growing sales of BEVs previously are due mainly to novelty and subsidies from governments. Now that China, Germany and some other markets are reducing tax incentives, and that the novelty is wearing out, we now see that BEV's sales stagnate.
The good news is that BYD now manages to bring down the prices of PHEVs to on par with comparable ICEVs, thus will ensure continual growth of this segment without gov subsidies, because of the versatility and to insure against future high prices of petroleum.
Posted by: Roger Pham | 15 August 2024 at 08:20 PM
Why do BEV enthusiasts insist so stubbornly on the thesis that BEV is the only real thing and that BEV will prevail with full force? Fortunately, it is not these enthusiasts who decide what will prevail. Ultimately, the market will decide, provided there is no interference from a state-controlled planned economy. BEVs will significantly increase their market share, but the mobility of tomorrow will be characterized by a colorful bouquet of different drive systems.
An article on Toyota's strategy is well worth reading: https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/toyota-bets-big-hybrid-only-models-ev-demand-slows-2024-08-15/
Posted by: Hoaloer | 16 August 2024 at 06:09 AM
Hoaloer,
I doubt that your comment was directed at me, because I specifically stated that there would be a market for fossil vehicles for a long time.
I think you noticed the first logical fallacy with the article you linked. EV demand hasn't slowed, as you can read in the article above. It's still growing at double-digit rates all over the world (+21% Global). It's the rate of growth that is slowing, which is basic maths. Going from one sale to two is 100% growth. Going from 300,000 to 330,000 is 10% growth. As market share converges toward 100% (theoretically), percentage growth necessarily slows.
I wish Toyota all the best as they fight for a larger share of a diminishing fossil market (+21% growth in EV share mostly comes-out of fossil share). I suspect that they would sing a different tune if their EVs were competitive. Let's revisit this in a few year, they've made bold statements in the past (1,000km range in 2025!), maybe some of them will come true.
Posted by: Bernard | 16 August 2024 at 06:33 AM