Adamas Intelligence: Market for magnet rare earth oxides to increase five-fold by 2040; robotics and advanced air mobility to be demand drivers
02 September 2024
With total magnet rare earth oxide consumption forecasted to increase at a CAGR of 5.4% (versus a higher 8.2% for demand) and prices projected to increase at CAGRs of 4.3% to 5.2% over the same period, Adamas Intelligence forecasts that the value of global magnet rare earth oxide consumption will increase more than five-fold by 2040, from US $7.8 billion this year to US $44.1 billion by 2040.
Robotics to become largest global demand driver by 2040.From a small demand category today led by industrial and consumer service robots, Adamas forecasts that robotics will grow to become the single largest NdFeB demand driver by 2040 on the back of soaring growth in professional service robot production for manufacturing, hospitality, transportation and logistics sectors
Advanced air mobility to help lift global demand.Similarly, from a nascent demand category today led by recreational, and to a lesser extent commercial, drones, Adamas forecasts that advanced air mobility will grow to become one of the largest NdFeB demand drivers by 2040, led by rapidly growing production of electric vertical-takeoff-and-landing aircraft for transportation and delivery sectors.
Aggressive supply increases needed post-2030. For China alone to close the growing supply gap projected between 2027 and 2040 will require annual production at Bayan Obo to increase nearly five-fold, massively depleting the country’s reserves. Conversely, for ex-China suppliers to close the growing supply gap will require the development of another 20 to 30 modest-scale mines by 2040, over and above those already expected to be developed in Adamas’ Base Case scenario.
Wiki tells us:
Nd:
' It is present in significant quantities in the minerals monazite and bastnäsite. Neodymium is not found naturally in metallic form or unmixed with other lanthanides, and it is usually refined for general use. Neodymium is fairly common—about as common as cobalt, nickel, or copper—and is widely distributed in the Earth's crust.[9] Most of the world's commercial neodymium is mined in China, as is the case with many other rare-earth metals.'
Dy:
' Due to its role in permanent magnets used for wind turbines, it has been argued[by whom?] that dysprosium will be one of the main objects of geopolitical competition in a world running on renewable energy. But this perspective has been criticised for failing to recognise that most wind turbines do not use permanent magnets and for underestimating the power of economic incentives for expanded production.[24][25]'
A rather inconclusive and old Wiki entry here, no idea from this if it is likely to be a problem.
Tb:
' In 2018, a rich terbium supply was discovered off the coast of Japan's Minamitori Island, with the stated supply being "enough to meet the global demand for 420 years".[50]'
Pr:
' Praseodymium is not particularly rare, despite it being in the rare-earth metals, making up 9.2 mg/kg of the Earth's crust.[42] Praseodymium's classification as a rare-earth metal comes from its rarity relative to "common earths" such as lime and magnesia, the few known minerals containing it for which extraction is commercially viable, as well as the length and complexity of extraction.[43] Although not particularly rare, praseodymium is never found as a dominant rare earth in praseodymium-bearing minerals. It is always preceded by cerium and lanthanum and usually also by neodymium.[44]'
Posted by: Davemart | 02 September 2024 at 03:26 AM
We have rare earth elements in mine tailings all over the US it's just not very profitable to extract it and refine it business seeks maximum return
Posted by: SJC | 02 September 2024 at 10:35 AM