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Lero study finds drivers of EVs more likely to be at fault in road traffic crashes than drivers of gasoline and diesel cars

Drivers of electric vehicles (EVs) are more likely to be involved in at-fault road traffic accidents than drivers of gasoline and diesel cars, according to a study by researchers at Lero, the Research Ireland Center for Software, and University of Limerick.

In an open-access paper in the journal Accident Analysis & Prevention, the Lero researchers analyzed insurance claims and data from onboard sensors and revealed a number of key findings:

  • Electric and hybrid drivers exhibit different behaviors than drivers of traditional vehicles.

  • Electric vehicles record more at-fault claims than traditional vehicles.

  • Electric vehicles are 6.7% more expensive to repair than traditional vehicles.

Lero researcher and co-director of the Centre of Emerging Risk Studies the Kemmy Business School, Dr Barry Sheehan, said EV drivers have a higher chance of experiencing an at-fault claim than drivers of cars with internal combustion engines (ICE).

Our research finds that despite their lower average mileage than internal combustion engines, lower road exposure for EV drivers does not reduce their risk of experiencing an at-fault insurance claim. When analyzing at-fault claims, we find a 4% increase in crashes from EVs and a 6% increase for hybrids (HYBs) compared to internal combustion engines.

However, when tested with statistical models, hybrids do not display any further concerns of increased at-fault claim risk. These results indicate that EVs have a higher risk profile than traditional internal combustion engine vehicles.

Our research shows drivers’ driving behavior changes significantly when switching to hybrids or EVs. These results mean EVs are more likely to experience an at-fault claim than internal combustion engines.

—Dr Barry Sheehan

Lero researcher and lead author Kevin McDonnell said their analysis of each fuel type shows that EVs and hybrids have lower average mileages than internal combustion engines.

This suggests that internal combustion engines should have a higher probability of incurring an at-fault claim than alternate energy fuel-type vehicles. However, the claims data contradicts this assumption by providing evidence of increased at-fault claim occurrences in EVs through predictive modeling and risk analysis.

—Kevin McDonnell

Lero’s Professor Finbarr Murphy, Executive Dean of the Kemmy Business School at UL and co-author said that, given the increased likelihood of incurring an at-fault insurance claim with less mileage, significant first-party damages, and battery costs, alternative energy vehicles are riskier and have a higher financial burden than gasoline and diesel cars.

The study used telematic data from 125 million commercial fleet vehicle trips involving 14,642 vehicles recorded from January 2022 to October 2022 in the Netherlands. It also used an insurance claims dataset during the same period.

Lero, the Research Ireland Centre for Software, is based at University of Limerick and funded by Taighde Éireann—Research Ireland, formerly Science Foundation Ireland.

Resources

  • Kevin McDonnell, Barry Sheehan, Finbarr Murphy, Montserrat Guillen, Are electric vehicles riskier? A comparative study of driving behaviour and insurance claims for internal combustion engine, hybrid and electric vehicles, Accident Analysis & Prevention, Volume 207, 2024, doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2024.107761

Comments

Bernard

I wonder if higher repair costs are a consequence of most EVs being newer and higher-end than fossil cars. I know that my insurance rates aren't any higher, the EV surplus being the equivalent of one fill-up, and the EV is a newer car (which you would expect to cost more to insure).
It could also be a "Tesla tax," given that they are notoriously more difficult to fix because of parts supply. That tax will be less statistically significant as their market share decreases.

GdB

EV much higher torque and low speed acceleration seems like a cause that could be mitigated and regulated. Just like in Japan and the EU they put limits on motorcycle performance to reasonable levels.

GdB

Driver assistance tech like FSD could also make a huge difference.

Bernard Harper

Everything about this data appears to be wrong. Are they extrapolating Irish gathered data to all EVs everywhere? Ireland is a dangerous place to drive and the increase in faster and heavier cars may be en nough to account for their weird data.

In the real world commercial fleet EVs cover high mileages and report lower costs. The difference is big enough to ensure diesel vans are likely to replaced by an EV. In the USA high annual mileage motorists are flipping to EVs and insurance claims are reported to be down there for interstate journeys with EVs. Repair costs are always higher for rare and expensive vehicles. The real question is if there is a downward trend in mechanical costs as EVs become more dominant is certain markets. Also factoring the longer commercial life of these vehicles should be taken into account too. Bizarre!

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