Reflecting the change in presidential Administrations, J.D. Power now projects the pace of EV retail share growth to level off in 2025, reaching a total of 9.1% of the total automobile marketplace, or a total of 1.2 million vehicles sold. Longer term, the forecast calls for the EV market to reach 26% retail share by 2030—approximately half of the market share the Biden administration targeted in its climate agenda.

The Trump administration has indicated that it intends to end the $7,500 federal Clean Vehicle Tax Credit as part of its plan to overhaul the US government. Based on J.D. Power research, these federal tax credits have played a major role in incentivizing current EV owners to purchase or lease an EV. Similarly, uncertainty concerning the future of tariffs placed on imported products and continued consumer frustration with public charging have created some significant headwinds to growth in EV adoption, J.D. Power said.

One major trend that took root in 2024 and will play a significant role in determining the future of EV market growth has been the expansion of the mass market segment. In 2021, mainstream franchise EV sales accounted for just 0.8% of total EV market share. In 2024, that number rose to 2.9%, as EVs from the likes of Chevrolet, Ford, Honda, Hyundai and Kia surged in popularity. A total of 376,000 units were sold in the mass market EV segment in 2024, and that trend appears to be holding steady as more mainstream EVs come to market.

This growth in the mass market segment—along with federal and state incentives—has also helped make EVs cheaper than comparable gas-powered vehicles. On average, at the end of 2024, the average cost of a battery-electric vehicle (BEV) was $44,400, which is $1,000 less than a comparable gas-powered vehicle, inclusive of hybrids and plugin hybrids. While that balance may change if federal tax incentives are removed, the trend toward EVs being a lower cost option has correlated with increases in sales, which will be an important factor for manufacturers to consider as they confront the current marketplace.

California has been the largest consumer market for EVs and, according to J.D. Power forecasts, the state is expected to reach 84% retail share by 2035. However, in 2024, the total number of EVs sold in California declined slightly, while states such as New York, Florida and Colorado have become new growth hot spots. The total number of EV sales in New York rose 23,000, followed by Florida (22,400), Colorado (14,600), Michigan (10,700) and Texas (8,400).

Achieving more even growth rates across the country—along with charging infrastructure to support that growth—will be key to the future of the EV market.