To implement the green transition according to the scenarios developed by the European Commission, Europe will require between 15 and 60% of the world’s supplies of critical metals according to a study conducted by researchers at IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute and Uppsala University, as part of the Fairtrans research program.

Current EU policies may lead to an overconsumption of critical metals relative to the resources available globally, undermining a sustainable and equitable transition.

—Mikael Malmaeus, researcher in natural resources and environmental impacts at IVL

The strategy chosen by Sweden and Europe for the green transition involves a massive expansion of renewable energy and extensive electrification of the transport and industrial sectors. Both renewable energy and electrification require access to a number of critical metals. For example, neodymium, nickel and zinc are often used in wind turbines. Gallium, indium and tellurium are used in solar cells, and batteries and electric cars use cobalt, lithium and nickel.

In the study, published in the journal Environmental Development, researchers at IVL and Uppsala University compared the estimated requirements with the global reserves and the global production capacity that is available.

According to the study, the EU requires roughly 25% to 35% of the world’s current reserves of zinc, cobalt and lithium. Even with optimistic assumptions, by 2030 the EU will use more than 80% of the world’s production capacity for lithium and 25% to 30% for cobalt and dysprosium.

Of the 14 metals assessed, only in the cases of gallium, indium and manganese does the EU use less than 5%—i.e. less than its per capita share—of the world’s production capacity.

With less optimistic assumptions, the EU’s utilization is even higher. The average for all metals varies between 15% and 60% of production capacity, depending on the assumptions made.

The EU represents 5.7% of the world’s population, Sweden 0.13%. As a proportion of the population, they thus require a disproportionately large share of the world’s critical metals resources.

This means that other countries will not have the same opportunity to invest in fossil-free energy and transport systems. It’s not only unfair but also very probably counterproductive if the EU’s transition comes at the cost of a slower or non-existent transition in other parts of the world.

—Erik Lindblom, specialist in environmental licensing and impact assessments at IVL

Technological development, metals recycling and faster establishment of new mines are strategies that could change the situation.

But it’s not enough to simply replace current technologies with fossil-free alternatives; a truly sustainable transition must also involve transformative, resource-efficient solutions that rapidly and radically reduce energy demand.

—Eva Alfredsson, researcher in climate leadership at Uppsala University

Resources

• J. Mikael Malmaeus, Eva C. Alfredsson, Erik Lindblom, On the allocation of critical metals between nations for a green and just transition, Environmental Development, Volume 54, 2025, 101157, ISSN 2211-4645, doi: 10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101157