The world can mine copper to fuel the green energy transition or it can mine copper to build the infrastructure of developing countries—but it will be extraordinarily difficult to do both, according to a University of Michigan study. The research, co-led by Adam Simon, U-M professor of earth and environmental sciences, found that the copper needed even just to sustain typical economic and population growth far exceeds the amount of copper currently mined.

The researchers, who published their results in an open-access paper in SEG Discovery, also suggest copper needs to more than double in price to motivate companies to develop new mines.

There is widespread concern in the resource community that necessary minerals and metals may not be available for the electrical transition from fossil fuels to noncarbon energy sources. We focus on copper for several reasons. First, remedying supply shortfalls of copper—which has been explored, mined, and produced for over 120 years in increasingly high tonnages—is likely to be substantially more difficult than increasing the supply of metals like lithium, which has not been previously extensively sought. Second, copper is probably the most essential material next to iron and concrete for development in low-income and middle-income countries. It is essential for transitioning energy generation from fossil fuels to noncarbon sources such as solar and wind and for the use of electric vehicles (EVs) for transportation. Third, a shortfall in copper supply will affect nontransition development and prevent some transition scenarios, making it central to policy considerations

—Cathles et al.

The researchers, who include Lawrence Cathles of Cornell University and Daniel Wood of the University of Queensland, Australia, modeled how much copper is necessary to carry on “business as usual” population growth and standard of living increases.

They also determined the amount of copper necessary for several different green energy scenarios. These include the transition to an all-electric vehicle fleet and the necessary grid upgrades to support it; replacing fossil fuels with wind and solar energy production; and using wind and solar energy production that relies on battery systems as energy storage.

For business-as-usual, about 1,100 million metric tons (a metric ton is 2,204.62 pounds) of copper needs to be mined by 2050. Transitioning to an EV fleet and associated grid upgrades requires 1,248 million metric tons of copper. Deriving power from wind and solar requires 2,304 million metric tons of copper. Building a power grid that relies on batteries for energy storage requires 3 billion metric tons of copper.

For comparison, companies mined about 23 million metric tons of copper in 2024.

At the same time, the researchers say, we can’t ignore the need for building infrastructure in places such as India and Africa. India will require 227 million metric tons of power to build and modernize its infrastructure, while building infrastructure across all 54 countries in Africa will require about one billion metric tons of copper.

The world needs more and more and more copper for business-as-usual economic development, and that creates tension. We suggest that the demand for copper for economic development, which is in essence global human development, should take priority over various electrification scenarios. If it comes down to a competition between ‘Are you going to build health care in Africa or are more people going to drive a Tesla?’ I would vote for health care in Africa.

—Adam Simon

Copper is key not only in achieving sustainability goals and electricity production and infrastructure, it’s also essential for clean water distribution, sanitation systems, education and health care facilities, and telecommunications networks. The amount of copper in a country’s infrastructure is a proxy not only for the level of the country’s human development, but also the life expectancy, education level and economic prosperity for people who live there.

Simon and his co-authors say that more mines must come online each year to keep up with copper demand. Mining enough copper to sustain “business as usual” growth would require 78 new copper mines between now and 2050 that would produce 500,000 metric tons of copper per year.

The researchers also modeled ways copper could be used strategically in different electrification scenarios. For example, if we generate electricity through a mix of nuclear, wind and solar, and use natural gas as a backup for generating electricity rather than battery storage for energy use, we would need far less copper. Similarly, a lot less copper is required for the use of hybrid vehicles rather than fully electric vehicles.

To incentivize mining companies to invest in developing copper mines, the researchers say copper needs to cost about twice as much as it currently does—its cost should exceed about $20,000 per metric ton. It currently costs about $9,000 per metric ton.

The researchers also point out that recycling copper has grown over the past several years. The amount of copper recycling has contributed has grown at 0.53% per year. If this grows at the same rate until 2050, recycling will contribute about 13.5 million metric tons of copper in 2050, a little more than a third of what is required to meet business-as-usual demands.

The researchers made an Excel spreadsheet available that allows users to dig into the study data.

Resources

• L. M. Cathles, A. C. Simon, D. Wood; Copper: Mining, Development, and Electrification. SEG Discovery 2025; (141): 13–20. doi: 10.5382/SEGnews.2025-141.fea-01