by Michael Sivak, Sivak Applied Research. In 2011, Brandon Schoettle and I documented the fact that, during the 25-year period from 1983 to 2008, there was a large reduction in the proportion of young persons with a driver’s license, and an increase in the licensing of older persons. I periodically... Read more →
by Michael Sivak, Sivak Applied Research During the pandemic, some workers were (and some still are) able to work from home. Therefore, it is not surprising that in 2020, the first year of the pandemic, the annual miles driven per car or light truck (SUV, pickup truck, or van) decreased... Read more →
The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the importance of understanding how public transportation ventilation systems may transmit viruses and how exhaled droplets evolve in ventilated spaces. Researchers have wondered if those ventilation systems can be improved to mitigate virus transmission. Researchers at IBM Research Europe have now developed a model with... Read more →
by Michael Sivak, Sivak Applied Research. The energy intensity of a transportation mode is calculated by dividing the amount of fuel used by the number of passenger miles traveled and converting the result into a common measure—Btu (British thermal units) per passenger mile traveled. Until recently, the energy intensity of... Read more →
The Transportation Services Index (TSI), created by the US Department of Transportation (DOT), Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS), measures the volume of freight and passengers moved monthly by the for-hire transportation sector in the United States. BTS produces three indexes: a freight index, a passenger index, and a combined index.... Read more →
The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly affected both consumer and commercial transportation, but global oil demand will probably continue to grow through 2030, according to a new study. Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy and the University of California, Davis Institute of Transportation Studies analyzed four scenarios to understand how... Read more →
bp released the 70th annual edition of the bp Statistical Review of World Energy; the data collected in this year’s edition includes energy data for 2020. The Review captures the significant impact the global pandemic had on energy markets and how it may shape future global energy trends. Both primary... Read more →
The world should invest at least $3 trillion more every year in sustainable infrastructure and nature to drive the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and the transition to a zero-emissions and climate-resilient global economy over the next decade, according to a new report that was requested by the UK Prime... Read more →
by Michael Sivak, Sivak Applied Research. As shown in my ongoing monitoring of monthly changes in key transportation indexes, the amount of driving (adjusted for population) during the pandemic decreased substantially. This brief post examines the relationship between driving and GDP during the pandemic. The raw data for the analysis... Read more →
A team of engineers at the University of California San Diego (UCSD) recommends expanding fast-charging stations for electric vehicles as campuses and businesses start planning for a post-pandemic world. Their recommendation is based on their study of charging patterns for electric vehicles on the UCSD campus from early January to... Read more →
Year-on-year gasoline sales in the United States have moved into positive territory for the first time on the one-year anniversary of the first major declines that resulted from COVID-induced stay at home orders. However, demand still trails pre-pandemic levels by a considerable margin, according to the latest data from Oil... Read more →
US crude oil production averaged 11.3 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2020, down 935,000 b/d (8%) from the record annual average high of 12.2 million b/d in 2019, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). The 2020 decrease in production was the largest annual decline in the EIA’s... Read more →
AYRO, Inc., a designer and manufacturer of light-duty, short-haul, and last-mile delivery electric vehicles (EVs), has launched the Electric Vaccine Vehicle (EVV). The EVV is a self-contained, all-electric transportation solution that has been optimized to store, transport, and deliver testing and vaccines to a large population across a wide variety... Read more →
The Covid-19 crisis in 2020 triggered the largest annual drop in global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions since the Second World War, according to IEA data, but the overall decline of about 6% masks wide variations depending on the region and the time of year. After hitting a low in April,... Read more →
The lockdowns and reduced societal activity related to the COVID-19 pandemic affected emissions of pollutants in ways that slightly warmed the planet for several months last year, according to new research led by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The counterintuitive finding highlights the influence of airborne particles, or... Read more →
by Michael Sivak, Sivak Applied Research. The current pandemic has not affected the different modes of mobility to the same degree. As is evident from my ongoing monthly monitoring of key transportation indexes, flying, riding the train, and taking public transit have all been influenced much more than driving. This... Read more →
Almost half of global consumers (46%) are considering purchasing a car in the next 12 months, an increase from 35% in April 2020. This reflects a continuous shift in consumer preference towards personal mobility, fueled by the COVID-19 pandemic, as car ownership today is seen as a safeguard against the... Read more →
Global aviation data firm Cirium released its new Airline Insights Review 2020 which reveals the deep impact on aviation of worldwide travel restrictions to curb COVID-19. The report shows that the pandemic and its consequences wiped out 21 years of global passenger traffic growth in a matter of months, reducing... Read more →
The American Bus Association (ABA) has released motorcoach industry closure data gathered from the Department of Transportation’s Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA). The data collected by FMCSA shows a surge in losses of authority for motorcoach operators in 2020, which means these companies are no longer providing transportation—in some... Read more →
Less traffic on the roads during the first COVID-19 lockdown in the UK led to a reduction in air pollution but may have caused potentially damaging surface ozone levels to rise, according to a new study led by researchers at the University of York. The open-access study, published in the... Read more →
The coronavirus pandemic is having a lasting impact on people’s mobility habits all over the world, according to the findings of the Continental Mobility Study 2020. Private car use has seen strong growth, while sharing and hailing services, which have been booming in recent years, are suffering a significant slump.... Read more →
US motorists stayed off the road during the Thanksgiving holiday in overwhelming numbers as the coronavirus surged across the country, according to the latest weekly survey of retail fuel stations by OPIS, an IHS Markit company. Gasoline sales fell 8.4% (nearly 185 million less gallons) from the previous week for... Read more →
A study by researchers at The Ohio State University suggests that the COVID-19 pandemic had varying effects on demand for public transit in US cities. While demand for public transit dropped about 73% across the country after the pandemic hit, the reduction didn’t impact all cities equally, according to the... Read more →
More than half of UK drivers (57%) say having access to a car is more important than it was before the coronavirus pandemic, with reluctance to use public transport in the future at its highest level in 18 years, according to research for the RAC’s annual Report on Motoring. Although... Read more →
In its fight against COVID-19 and for the protection of bus occupants, Daimler Buses is relying on a high fresh air content, a fast exchange of air and anti-viral high-performance particle filters in its vehicles. The effectiveness of these protective measures has been confirmed by a research report issued by... Read more →
A new study finds that from April to July American households spent an extra $6 billion to power their homes after a 10% rise in residential electricity use during the pandemic. To reduce the risk of contracting COVID-19, roughly one-third of Americans are working from home. As a result of... Read more →
by Michael Sivak, Sivak Applied Research. In two recent analyses, I have shown that, during the pandemic, the decrease in vehicle miles traveled (VMT) in the states with preference for Democrats was greater than in the states with preference for Republicans. This was the case in both March 2020 (the... Read more →
The UK’s driving population has veered towards increased environmental consciousness, with 76% of the population admitting that they are aware of the environmental impacts of driving. However, a recent survey by RingGo, the UK’s leading cashless parking provider, found that only two-fifths of UK drivers say that they are planning... Read more →
by Michael Sivak, Sivak Applied Research. In a recent analysis, I have shown that in March 2020 (the first month with the pandemic), the decrease in vehicle miles traveled (VMT) in the states with preference for Democrats was greater than in the states with preference for Republicans. The present analysis... Read more →
by Michael Sivak, Sivak Applied Research. In a recent article, I have shown that, in the United States, despite a large increase in e-commerce retail sales, traditional retail sales (adjusted for population and inflation) have stayed virtually unchanged from 2015 through 2019. Specifically, during that time period, the annual increases... Read more →
The Mobility Systems Center (MSC), one of the MIT Energy Initiative (MITEI)’s Low-Carbon Energy Centers, will fund four new research projects that will allow for deeper insights into achieving a decarbonized transportation sector,including Covid-19 and urban mobility; strategies for electric vehicle charging networks; and infrastructure and economics for hydrogen-fueled transportation.... Read more →
by Michael Sivak, Sivak Applied Research. In this study, I examined the relative expenditures on motor vehicles in the United States from March through June 2020—the first four months of the current pandemic. The raw data for the calculations—seasonally adjusted dollar amounts of sales for each month—came from the U.S.... Read more →
Different countries will respond in different ways to the challenges of economic growth and environmental sustainability based upon their regional advantages, according to a new paper by an expert in the Center for Energy Studies at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy. The COVID-19 pandemic has added pressure to... Read more →
by Michael Sivak, Sivak Applied Research. Light-duty vehicles (cars and light trucks) are being purchased primarily by individuals, while heavy trucks by companies. Therefore, an examination of the recent changes in the sales of vehicles in these two classes provides some information about the economic impact (both actual and anticipated)... Read more →
Oil markets have returned to relatively stable ground with Brent prices within a narrow $40-$45 per barrel range and could conclusively pass the $50 per barrel mark in the second half of 2021, according to Roger Diwan and the IHS Markit Energy Advisory Service. The IHS Markit Brent price outlook... Read more →
An Ipsos Auto Global Study has found that new vehicle owners in US, China, EURO5 and Brazil desire autonomous functionality in their next vehicle. We have been through more than four months of the COVID-19 pandemic, and we are getting signals of a “new normal.” Many employers have encouraged their... Read more →
Large improvements of air quality in China during the lockdown have been widely reported, but new research shows that two pollutants harmful to human health—fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone—were only slightly reduced. The study, by scientists from the University of Leeds, UK and the Southern University of Science and... Read more →
After years of consistent growth, the connected vehicle industry will face a 15% decline in shipments and flat revenues in 2020, according to projections by ABI Research, a global tech market advisory firm. However, both embedded and aftermarket segments will see accelerated growth in 2021, and sales should return to... Read more →
A short poll by the Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply (CIPS) has found that the disruption caused by COVID-19 will lead to permanent changes in global supply chains, as businesses look to adapt to new ways of working and managing the varying stages of lockdown around the world. This... Read more →
A global survey of more than survey found that more than 120 auto tech leaders by Informa Tech Automotive Group found that 57% expect that COVID-19 will quicken the pace and rate of consolidation within the automotive industry. In addition, with an increased reluctance to use public transportation, more than... Read more →
A team from Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Aramco Services Company, MIT, the Michigan Department of Transportation and Argonne National Laboratory has developed a machine-learning-based model (Pandemic Oil Demand Analysis, PODA) to project the US medium-term gasoline demand in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic and to study the impact... Read more →
by Michael Sivak, Sivak Applied Research. In this brief note, I examine the distances traveled by flying and driving in the United States in March and April 2020—the first two months of the current pandemic—and compare them with the corresponding distances in March and April 2019. The raw data for... Read more →
US airlines carried 89% fewer scheduled service passengers in May 2020 than in May 2019, according to preliminary data filed with the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) by 20 airlines that carry more than 90% of the passengers. Source: DOT BTS. Despite the large drop from May 2019, US airlines... Read more →
Air pollution is lower than expected in some of the UK’s towns and cities, despite a return to almost normal traffic levels, according to a new study by researchers at the University of York. The study’s findings show that while road traffic is getting back to pre-lockdown levels, some concentrations... Read more →
Mike Manley, the CEO of Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV and the current European Association of Automobile Manufacturers (ACEA) president, has sent a letter to Thierry Breton, Commissioner for the Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs, European Commission, requesting a 6-month postponement of the application dates of key upcoming EU standards,... Read more →
Gasoline consumption in the United States is now more than halfway back to pre-COVID-19 levels as motorists get back on the road amid at least a partial recovery of the US economy, according to OPIS, an IHS Markit company. Fill-ups at the pump hit the rock bottom in the second... Read more →
Fewer wild animals, including threatened mountain lions, are becoming roadkill during shelter-in-place orders, according to a study on three states from the University of California, Davis. Using traffic and collision data collected from California, Idaho and Maine, the researchers found that wildlife-vehicle conflict has declined by 21-56 percent from early... Read more →
BYD has completed the delivery of 10 battery-electric K9S buses to Link Transit in Wenatchee, Washington, a milestone for the company as production ramps up following a temporary plant closure in Mid-March from the COVID-19 pandemic. The final two buses of the order were recently delivered, joining the eight others... Read more →
by Michael Sivak, Sivak Applied Research. This note examines the sales of all new light-duty vehicles (cars and light trucks) in the United States in March, April, and May 2020—the first three months of the current pandemic—and compares them with the sales in February 2020. The raw data were annualized,... Read more →
The COVID-19 pandemic has set in motion the largest drop in global energy investment in history, with spending expected to plunge in every major sector this year—from fossil fuels to renewables and efficiency—the International Energy Agency said in a new report. Energy investment is set to fall by one-fifth in... Read more →